In this article, I ask myself about the future of the taxi: what role will it play in the future urban transport system, and whether app-based taxi services are the future of this profession.
I am a taxi driver and entrepreneur with several years of experience in the industry. Despite many adversities, I try to stick to this profession because I believe that it has a future. I am not at the end of my professional career yet, on the contrary - I believe that I am in top shape.
In writing this article, I will try to answer the question for myself whether it is worth working as a taxi driver. I invite you to read it.
What is the urban transport system?
Let’s start with the basics, namely what a city’s transportation system is. To understand the role of the taxi in today’s world and to predict where it will be in a dozen or so years, we must first understand what a city’s transportation system is.
The urban transport system is a complex system that enables the movement of people and goods within the city and its surroundings.
Its main elements are:
Public transport : Depending on the city, these can include buses, trams, metros, trolleybuses, as well as regional trains and ferries. In some cities, there are also less traditional forms, such as suspended monorails or automated rail vehicle systems.
Infrastructure : This includes roads, tracks, stations, stops, terminals, parking lots and other elements that enable the operation of various means of transport. Traffic light systems, signage and infrastructure supporting road safety are also important.
Management and control systems : To ensure efficient operation and safety, urban transport systems use advanced traffic management technologies, monitoring systems, and route and schedule planning software.
Additional services : These include passenger information systems, ticket machines, mobile applications for purchasing tickets and planning journeys, as well as support services for disabled people.
Integration with other forms of transport : In many cities, the public transport system is integrated with other forms of transport, such as city bikes, car sharing or taxis, to ensure seamless transitions between different forms of travel.
Policy and Planning : Local authorities and transport agencies are usually responsible for planning, developing and managing the urban transport system. A city's transport policy is key to shaping the transport network, determining investment priorities, regulations and financial resources.
Environmental and social aspects : Modern urban transport systems increasingly take into account the need for sustainable development, minimizing exhaust emissions and the accessibility of transport for all social groups.
Innovation and technological developments : Many cities are introducing innovations such as autonomous vehicles, intelligent transportation systems (ITS), green vehicle technologies and solutions that increase energy efficiency in transportation.
The urban transport system is a key element of the functioning of cities, having a direct impact on the quality of life of its inhabitants, the economic efficiency of the city and its impact on the environment.
As you can see, in modern cities, your work as a taxi driver is actually a contribution to something bigger . It is a conscious or unconscious participation in a complex transport ecosystem that should work as a single organism.
Another thing is that it sounds nice in theory, but as we know, you and I live in Central Europe, where decades of communism did not allow us to develop as efficiently as cities in the West.
That is why we are only just building integrated transport solutions, starting from scratch, while elsewhere autonomous vehicles are already being introduced.
Will there be a place for the traditional taxi in the future?
In my opinion, yes for some time, but this question is not as obvious and easy as it seems.
Let's consider for a moment what the threats are to the passenger taxi industry , which in Poland is overwhelmingly operated by sole proprietorships.
To be clear, when I speak of a traditional taxi, I mean a taxi driven by a driver who is self-employed, whether or not he or she is affiliated with a traditional taxi corporation or association.
Threats to a taxi operating in a traditional business model:
Self-driving taxis : It is not without reason that I have placed this threat first. The first driverless taxis are already being introduced in the world today. While Europe has traditionally lagged behind due to its penchant for regulation, the Asians and Americans are leading the way in this regard.
Car sharing : I allowed myself to place this topic separately. I'll explain why. Today, car sharing services are becoming more and more familiar to us. Not long ago, we were told that Uber or Bolt were such services, but fortunately, the situation has become civilized and currently, car sharing services are car services for minutes. Panek, for example, is a leader in this. Why do I treat it as a threat? Sure, it takes customers away, but seriously, it mainly takes customers away from car showrooms and dealerships. A customer who is ready to drive a vehicle themselves is not a taxi customer anyway. But let's think for a moment what would happen if instead of an Opel Astra or Renault Clio, there was a Tesla 3 on every corner with full autopilot? Elon Musk himself says that his cars will allow their owners to earn money in the future.
Taxis on apps : This is the main reason for the decline of today's taxi businesses, the departure of experienced taxi drivers from this profession and the lack of new ones willing to enter this profession. Apps like Uber, Bolt, FreeNow . However, we are missing one thing. In fact, apps are not the biggest threat, but our lack of participation in this system. Another issue is whether we, as taxi drivers, will be needed at all if taxis become autonomous ?
I have listed the three most important threats that are on the lips of many taxi drivers. A red flag should have gone off a long time ago when you observe what applications such as those provided by Uber or FreeNow are today. In fact, they are integrators of many types of transport services .
The taxi is just one of the parts, although important, but at the same time the most difficult to manage, precisely because of the "meat insert" in the form of a driver working a dozen hours a day.
If the driver is no longer needed, the taxi driver profession will end.
Companies will integrate all services into one app to order everything. Because autonomous cars will be hellishly expensive, only the largest companies will be able to afford them in sufficient numbers.
Is there still a chance for traditional taxi drivers?
Yes and no. The taxi driver profession in our part of the world will cease to exist in our lifetime. Or at least in the lifetime of the millennial generation. But don't worry, it won't happen overnight.
Why is it still possible to consider working as a taxi driver as a source of income for your family? Because transportation needs are constantly growing. Even with a large percentage of people working in hybrid or completely online ways, we are becoming increasingly mobile as a society.
As our habits change, our approach to life is also changing, and not everyone considers a car to be necessary .
Another topic is the constantly growing cost of purchasing and maintaining a private car , which, in the perspective of switching to alternative fuels and electric drive, will only increase the percentage of households without a car.
In my opinion, we will now, or very soon, reach a peak in the number of cars per capita.
Now let's look at what the public transport system looks like. It is not without reason that I began the text of this article with a definition of this system.
In an ideal world, a city dweller wouldn’t need their own car. They’d leave their house and, if they lived a bit further from a bus or tram stop, they’d hop on a city bike or use an electric scooter .
He goes to the stop, where he changes to a tram or metro . And he easily gets wherever he wants.
Ok, but how many of these individual blocks in the form of city bikes , scooters would there have to be, and how dense would the public transport network have to be in such a city?
You see what a challenge this is? And just think how much it will cost. That is why I am certain that this revolution will last almost our entire generation.
And when will it reach smaller cities, towns or villages? Will some large corporation maintain a fleet of a dozen autonomous Teslas in Pcim Dolny?
As you can see, traditional taxis will still be needed for a very long time, even though they are a dying profession . But which profession is eternal? Of course, apart from the priest and the lady of easy virtue.
What should the taxi driver of the future look like?
Now let's consider what a taxi driver / entrepreneur running a sole proprietorship PKD 49.32.Z - Passenger taxi activity should look like in the future.
It is not without reason that I emphasize this sole proprietorship . You see, we still think of ourselves as entrepreneurs . In reality, most of us are employees of taxi corporations or associations, only on our own accounting and we take care of everything ourselves.
And to answer the question briefly,
The taxi driver of the future should finally become an entrepreneur. He must learn about internet marketing, learn foreign languages. Improve his driving technique.
He should also be an even better chauffeur. In other words, in the future, when autonomous taxis start to enter the market, the taxi driver should supplement this market in those places where an autonomous taxi cannot replace a human.
It is better to start adapting to the changing market today. After all, how many of us are actively involved in customer acquisition , marketing , and brand building ?
Most are only responsible for clicking the "Accept Order" button and driving.
Meanwhile, customers won't wait forever, if they can't find you on the Internet, it's as if you didn't exist at all.
Is such a passive attitude being an entrepreneur? For me, it is just tax optimization, the beneficiaries of which are or will soon be larger than those one-man workers who today call themselves taxi drivers.
Remember, to a corporation you are just a sad necessity. A meat insert for a car. You are the biggest expense that also causes the most problems.
As soon as technology and regulations allow it, I guarantee you that those companies that are so actively looking for people like you will be the first to buy hundreds of autonomous taxis.
So what to do? And how to live?
Now that we know that the driver's profession is dying out "because it is and there is no way to change it", where is the place for a taxi driver ?
We, as humans, still value personal contact with another human being. There is a lot of talk about the AI revolution, about language models like ChatGPT soon replacing us at work, about automation, etc.
But that's not how it works. We still value and will continue to value personal contact with another human being the most. A self-driving car won't talk to a passenger, and even if it did, what kind of conversation would that be when there's only ChatGPT on the other end?
An autonomous car will not help an elderly person enter or exit, will not carry luggage, and will not help in situations where ordinary human empathy is needed, not an algorithm.
And so what if you don't have to hold the steering wheel for most of the journey as a taxi driver ? It's just that for a long time, before there is a complete generational change, we humans will be needed in some professions.
Of course, at the same time, you will be passing by autonomous buses or driverless cars, new generation passengers reading on their smartphones. Nevertheless, a taxi , just like now, will be something a bit better, something more – it will be a premium product for a long time.
So what should the taxi driver of the future be like? He should be a premium product, passionate and love what he does. He should be empathetic and communicative . He should be a premium chauffeur who will talk in pure human terms when the passenger expects it .
The remaining taxi drivers who do not adapt, unfortunately or fortunately, will be out of circulation. Because why be a moron behind the wheel when you can drive without a driver ?
To sum up
In my opinion, the coming decades will be a difficult time for all of us. We are witnessing another industrial revolution . And we should be proud that this time we, Poles , are participating in this revolution.
Currently, we see the streets flooded with cheap transport , but don't worry. Where it's cheap and not too much is required, that's where the first robots will appear. In this case - autonomous cars .
In short, the taxi still has decades ahead of it, but it will look completely different than it does now.
Finally, I would like to encourage you to share your thoughts in the comments section, I am curious about your thoughts on this topic. And once again, this text is my subjective thoughts.
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