How will the end of the war in Ukraine change the taxi market in Poland?
- Damian Brzeski
- Jan 18
- 14 min read
Can the war against Ukraine revolutionize the Polish taxi market? The end of the conflict in Donbas and a decisive victory for Ukraine will affect not only the geopolitical situation, but also everyday life - including the transport industry in Poland.
Can stabilization in Kiev, the return of Ukrainian workers, and falling fuel prices after the end of the war change the taxi market? Discover the key factors that could affect the future of this industry after Ukraine's victory and changes in Kremlin policy.
Current conflict situation and state of warfare at the beginning of 2025
At the beginning of 2025, the conflict in Ukraine remains one of the most important flashpoints in the world. Fighting in Donbas and around key cities is intense, and the situation is changing rapidly.
Ukrainian armed forces are trying to regain the initiative in Kursk Oblast, advancing towards Sudzha , but their progress is limited by heavy fighting in the Berdin area. In sectors such as Pokrovsk and Kurakhov , the Russian numerical superiority, as much as 5 to 1, hampers offensive operations.
The accumulation of 150,000 Russian troops in the Pokrovsk region further weakens Ukraine's position. The intensification of attacks in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions and regular shelling of critical infrastructure are causing serious material losses and civilian casualties.
A tragedy occurred in the Kherson region when shelling of a cemetery killed one person and injured many others.
President Volodymyr Zelensky , emphasizing the urgent need for rearmament, appeals for immediate support for Ukrainian brigades. Germany and other allies declare arms deliveries, but Russia's numerical superiority makes effective action difficult.
The lack of stability in Ukraine is leading to further migration of workers, including taxi drivers , to Poland. Their potential return after the end of the war could create a serious staffing gap on the Polish labor market.
The Role of the West in Supporting Ukraine
Western support for Ukraine in 2025 remains crucial, but faces challenges related to financing and military needs.
Western countries plan to transfer around $50 billion to Ukraine, financed partly from frozen reserves of the Central Bank of Russia . The funds are to go mainly to arms supplies, although negotiations are still ongoing, which affects Ukraine's defense capabilities.
Poland is playing an important role, providing another tranche of aid worth €200 million . The total value of Polish military support is at least €3.23 billion .
In turn, the United States approved a new aid package worth $500 million , including advanced weapons systems and logistical support.
The European Union is focusing on rebuilding Ukraine's energy infrastructure and supports Ukraine's aspirations to integrate with the EU.
Despite this support, Ukraine is struggling with a budget deficit of about $35 billion . The International Monetary Fund and the EU will cover more than half of that amount, but Kiev must find additional sources of financing.
Experts emphasize the importance of taking over Russia's frozen reserves, which could provide Ukraine with funds for military operations and stabilization of the economy.
Western engagement remains crucial to Ukraine’s defense capabilities and reconstruction. At the same time, mass migration of workers, including to Poland, continues to affect the labor market , especially in the transportation industry.
Stabilizing the political and economic situation in Ukraine is necessary to stop this trend and enable emigrants to return to their homeland.
Key figures and their role in ending the war in Ukraine
The role of the main political leaders is a key factor influencing the future of the conflict in Ukraine. In addition to the presidents of Russia, the United States, and Ukraine, other world leaders also play important roles in this process.
Joe Biden , as the acting president of the United States, provides Ukraine with broad military, financial, and diplomatic support. Subsequent military aid packages (including advanced weapons deliveries) strengthen Ukraine's defense potential.
The United States also coordinates joint actions of allies within NATO and the G7, emphasizing the need to maintain transatlantic unity in the face of Russian aggression.
Donald Trump , the President-elect of the United States, has made public statements claiming that he would "quickly end the war" if he were to return to the White House.
However, he has not yet presented a detailed plan, and his declarations are controversial due to the possible expectation of concessions from Ukraine, which is unacceptable to Kiev at this point.
Vladimir Putin , the President of Russia, has consistently sought to maintain control over the annexed territories of Ukraine, including Crimea, and from 2022 also over four more regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia), which Russia is trying to recognize as its own.
Russian demands, such as recognition of the annexation or broad autonomy for the regions of eastern Ukraine, are unacceptable to the authorities in Kiev in the current circumstances. Putin's position leads to further escalation and pushes the prospect of quick peace negotiations into the background.
Volodymyr Zelensky , the president of Ukraine, remains determined to regain full control over the territories occupied by Russia. He also seeks further integration with NATO and the European Union. Kiev's tough stance, supported by much of the international community, translates into continued sanctions against Russia and continued arms deliveries to Ukraine.
Emmanuel Macron , the French president, continues to engage in diplomatic attempts at de-escalation. He tries to maintain channels of communication with Moscow while supporting Kiev. France is actively involved in sanctions against Russia, but Macron, like other European leaders, emphasizes the importance of diplomacy in a long-term solution to the conflict.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan , the president of Turkey, is trying to maintain a balance between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey has participated in the mediation process, as exemplified by the agreement on grain exports from Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea (the so-called "grain initiative"), negotiated in 2022 with the support of the UN. Although this agreement has faced numerous difficulties and has been periodically suspended by Russia, Turkey is still trying to play the role of a mediator, trying to prevent further crises in the region.
Xi Jinping , the Chinese president, has declared his willingness to mediate, presenting the outline of the so-called “China Peace Plan” in 2023. Beijing’s efforts have met with limited confidence from Kiev and most Western countries, however. Many observers point out that China, although formally neutral, in practice maintains close economic and political ties with Moscow.
Poland , as Ukraine's direct neighbor and a key NATO member in the region, plays an important role in shaping the West's response to Russia's aggression. President Andrzej Duda and the Polish government actively support Ukraine both politically and militarily (including military equipment deliveries, training), participating in numerous summits and conferences on security in Europe.
All these leaders, through their diplomatic and mediation activities, have a significant influence on the processes leading to ending the war in Ukraine and stabilizing the region.
Donald Trump's Peace Plan – Reality or Political Game?
Donald Trump has proposed ending the war in Ukraine by creating a demilitarized zone in Donbas and blocking Ukraine's aspirations for NATO membership. Although such a solution could quickly end the war , it would involve losing Ukraine's sovereignty and recognizing Russian spheres of influence.
The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky , emphasizes that such conditions are unacceptable, because any concession, such as giving up Crimea or part of Ukrainian territory , would set a dangerous precedent.
A decisive victory for Ukraine , according to Kiev, requires the restoration of full territorial integrity and lasting security.
Blocking Ukraine’s NATO accession contradicts its key political goals. Implementing Trump’s plan could also divide Europe, with NATO’s eastern flank countries, including Poland and the Baltic states, opposed to making concessions to Russia, while war-weary Western states may consider a quick “freeze” of the conflict.
The question of ending the war therefore remains the subject of fierce disputes, both in Europe and internationally.
A possible de-escalation could lower the prices of energy resources, which would have a positive impact on the transport sector in Poland, including the taxi industry, which is dependent on fuel costs.
However, the stabilization of these prices also depends on limiting the actions of Russia, which has repeatedly used Kremlin propaganda and energy manipulation as tools to pressure the West.
Despite potential short-term benefits, such as a ceasefire or economic stabilization, a lasting victory for Ukraine would require the withdrawal of Russian troops from occupied territories and recognition of its sovereignty.
Meanwhile, Trump’s proposed terms for ending the war raise serious doubts about their effectiveness and long-term consequences.
The outflow of taxi drivers to better-paid professions
In Poland, taxi drivers have long felt the pressure of high business costs – from fuel prices to licensing fees.
With the cost of living rising and wages higher in other sectors, many taxi drivers are considering moving into higher-paying careers such as trucking or construction.
Truck transport offers higher wages, which can reach up to PLN 8,000–12,000 net per month, especially in the case of international transport (Transport Manager, 2024).
It is worth noting that stabilization in the region, such as a potential end to the conflict in Ukraine, could lead to lower fuel prices, which would facilitate the functioning of the taxi sector.
In turn, employment in construction, especially in large infrastructure projects financed from EU funds, is also becoming an attractive alternative.
For skilled workers, salaries in this industry are much higher than the average in the taxi sector. However, the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the war , in which companies from all over Europe, including Poland, may be involved, may attract skilled workers to Kyiv as well.
Such a development, combined with Western military aid and political support for Ukraine, could reshape regional labor markets, increasing the pressure for change in the transport sector in Poland.
The situation on the labor market for professional drivers
The Polish labor market is struggling with a huge shortage of professional drivers. There is currently a shortage of about 150,000 drivers , and some estimates suggest that there may be as many as 200,000 missing workers in the transport and logistics (TSL) industry. The problem affects almost the entire country, as 91% of Polish counties experience a deficit in this industry.
The southern and western regions of Poland are particularly affected, where the proximity of the German border further increases recruitment difficulties.
The average age of professional drivers in Poland is over 55 , which means that many people are approaching retirement age.
Younger generations are not sufficiently interested in this profession, which is due, among other things, to the costs of obtaining appropriate qualifications – from PLN 7 to 10 thousand .
Although the average salary in this industry in 2023 was over PLN 7,800 net per month , many young people choose other career paths.
Consequences of the outflow of taxi drivers
Taxi sector labour shortage: If the exodus of drivers to other professions increases, ride-hailing companies like Uber and Bolt could face difficulties in fulfilling requests, resulting in longer wait times for rides.
Rising taxi rates: Fewer drivers mean less competition, which ultimately leads to higher fares.
Increased dependence on foreign workers: To fill staff shortages, the Polish taxi market may be forced to recruit more workers from other countries, such as Georgia, Uzbekistan or the Philippines.
Strategies to combat driver attrition
Raising fares: Increasing fares could help attract and retain drivers in the taxi industry. Unfortunately, this will be an unpopular decision with customers.
Support for drivers: Fuel subsidies, preferential insurance or tax exemptions can ease the financial pressure on those operating in the passenger transport sector.
Professional promotion: Social campaigns presenting the taxi driver profession as stable and promising could improve its perception.
When will the war in Ukraine end?
Predicting the end of the war in Ukraine remains extremely difficult, as the conflict is played out on many levels – military, political, economic and social. Experts' opinions are divided, but they point to key factors that may affect the time and manner of ending the war.
Ongoing hostilities are intense. The Ukrainian armed forces , supported by Western military aid , are conducting an offensive in Kursk Oblast, but the Russians, supported by the Kremlin , continue to maintain control over parts of Donbas and Crimea . At the same time, the changing nature of the conflict, with the increasing role of drones, is limiting traditional ground combat, which is affecting the strategy of both sides.
Experts have different opinions about the future of the conflict. General Bogusław Pacek predicts that the war could end in 2025, regardless of whether a peace treaty is reached or the conflict is frozen.
Vladimir Milov points out that any ceasefire may be fragile, and Russia's imperialist ambitions will remain unresolved.
Jamie Shea stresses that a ceasefire is more likely than a full-fledged peace agreement.
International support plays a key role in Ukraine’s defense capabilities. The United States , the European Union , and other countries continue to provide military and financial aid to Ukraine, but the sustainability of that support will be crucial.
The weakening of Western unity, especially in the context of economic fatigue caused by sanctions against Russia, could contribute to prolonging the war.
Negotiations and political will are equally crucial. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made it clear that ending the war must mean restoring control over the entire territory, which rules out territorial compromises.
Meanwhile , Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown no willingness to withdraw from the occupied territories. Attempts at mediation by Turkey and China have so far yielded no lasting results.
The situation may change significantly with the upcoming inauguration of President Donald Trump , which will take place in a few days.
Trump has announced a quick end to the conflict by introducing a demilitarized zone and blocking Ukraine's NATO aspirations. Although these proposals are controversial, they could affect the future course of the conflict and the shape of any peace negotiations.
Domestic aspects also play an important role. In Ukraine, a sense of national unity and a determination not to give in to Russia dominate. In Russia, on the other hand, despite limited resistance to the war, the public and elites largely support the Kremlin's actions, mainly under the influence of Russian propaganda .
The end of the conflict in Ukraine in 2025 is possible, but it largely depends on the development of the situation on the front, the level of international support and political decisions that may be made in the coming weeks, especially in the context of the policy of the new US president.
A Ukrainian victory would require the withdrawal of Russian troops and recognition of its territorial integrity, which still seems a distant goal.
Geopolitical Challenges After Ukraine Ceasefire: Middle East, Taiwan, and Poland's Future
The end of the war in Ukraine could significantly stabilize the situation on the global oil market. The conflict in Eastern Europe, resulting from the war against Ukraine , has caused uncertainty in energy markets, leading to sharp price increases. The end of the conflict could restore stability and curb further price spikes.
Declining oil prices: According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), stabilizing the geopolitical situation could reduce oil prices by as much as 15-20% within two years (IEA, 2024). A key factor here will be the attitude of players such as Russia and OPEC, which play a decisive role in setting production levels.
Impact on the taxi sector: Lower fuel prices would mean lower operating costs for transport companies, which could translate into lower fares and greater market competitiveness.
Additionally, cheaper fuel would promote greater social mobility, leading to an increase in demand for transportation services.
However, any stabilization of oil prices remains dependent on maintaining peace in the region and on political decisions. Western military aid and joint international actions aimed at ending the conflict can contribute to a lasting calming of the situation in Eastern Europe.
The Middle East and the Oil Market: It is worth remembering, however, that the end of the conflict in Ukraine does not mean complete stability in the world. Tensions in the Middle East, especially between Iran and Saudi Arabia, could pose a serious threat to the stability of the oil market.
As Jacek Bartosiak (Strategy&Future) notes, even a short-term attack on oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf region could raise oil prices by 20-30% within a week, destabilizing global markets.
For this reason, both the end of the war in Russia and the normalization of the situation in the Middle East will be crucial for the future of the energy resources market.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stressed that lasting peace in Europe requires a clear opposition to the imperial ambitions of Russian President Vladimir Putin .
Taiwan: Flashpoint in US-China Relations
Taiwan is now one of the most important points of contention in relations between the United States and China. Beijing regularly demonstrates its military might in an effort to strengthen its position as a global power.
However, experts warn that an escalation of the conflict in the region could have disastrous consequences not only for East Asia but also for the entire world.
Why? Taiwan is a major producer of semiconductors , which are key to the technology, automotive and many other sectors. Any disruption in the supply of these components could trigger a global economic crisis .
The United States , supported by the West , is trying to counter China's ambitions by using its influence in the Pacific region and in the UN . Interestingly, the situation in Taiwan resembles the conflict in Eastern Europe .
The war against Ukraine and the resistance to Russia's imperial ambitions became a symbol of the struggle of smaller states for sovereignty.
China’s stance toward Ukraine has also raised concerns. Beijing maintains close ties with the Russian president , fueling concerns about the future of the global order.
Meanwhile, Western military aid to Ukraine and NATO involvement demonstrate the democratic world's determination to counter the hegemonic ambitions of both Russia and China.
China, as Marek Budzisz notes, is trying to break the dominance of the US by promoting its vision of a new world order . It is forming alliances with countries such as Russia, Iran and BRICS members, trying to build an alternative international system based on economic cooperation, not on Western democratic values.
It is worth adding that in 2023, Xi Jinping presented a peace plan for Ukraine , which was intended to strengthen China's image as a neutral arbitrator.
In reality, however, Beijing seems more concerned with building its own global leadership position than with actually ending the conflict (PISM).
Back to the game of superpowers
Polish geopoliticians, such as Jacek Bartosiak and Marek Budzisz , emphasize that the end of the war in Ukraine may become the beginning of a new era of competition for influence in the international arena. The world seems to be heading towards multipolar politics , where three major powers – the US , China and Russia – will compete for dominance in key regions of the globe.
Jacek Bartosiak points out that in such a situation Poland should focus on building its position as an important player in Central and Eastern Europe. The following will be key in this process:
Cooperation within the Three Seas Initiative – an initiative bringing together countries between the Adriatic, Baltic and Black Seas,
Strengthening the position in NATO structures , which remain the main guarantee of Poland's security.
According to Bartosiak, such actions will help avoid the political marginalization of Poland in the new, dynamically changing balance of power (Strategy&Future).
Implications for Poland and Europe
The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) and global electricity needs are becoming new geopolitical challenges.
Energy transformation is essential, but global conflicts, such as competition for raw materials for batteries or semiconductors, can disrupt supply chains.
Semiconductor trade war: The conflict between the US and China over access to advanced technologies could lead to problems with the availability of components for the automotive industry. This, in turn, increases the costs of producing modern cars, including electric vehicles.
Autonomous vehicles: The rollout of autonomous vehicle technology, which could revolutionize the taxi sector, will be driven by pressure from global economic tensions. While autonomous vehicles have the potential to lower operating costs, their adoption could be slowed by manufacturing and technology issues.
Operating Costs: Geopolitical tensions, particularly around oil prices and component availability, could significantly impact the costs of doing business in the taxi industry.
Fleet transformation: Rising fuel prices and the need to protect the environment will accelerate the transition to electric taxi fleets. Government support in the form of subsidies or tax breaks will be key to speeding up this process.
Impact on the labor market: If autonomous vehicles gain popularity, they could significantly reduce the demand for taxi drivers, forcing a reorganization of the labor market in this industry.
The end of the war in Ukraine may bring stability, but global tensions over energy and technology will continue to put pressure on the taxi sector in Poland.
It will be crucial to monitor these changes and adapt strategies accordingly by the government and entrepreneurs.
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